Nordea: New call on the Riksbank: Policy rate 2% in 2025

New call on the Riksbank: Policy rate 2% in 2025


Article by Torbjörn Isaksson

We have lowered our forecast for the end-point of the Riksbank’s policy rate in connection with the release of Economic Outlook. We now see the policy rate at 2.00% next year.

Our forecast for the near term is unchanged. Thus, we continue to see 25bp rate cuts at all remaining meetings this year and an additional rate cut in early 2025, bringing the policy rate to 2.75% year-end 2024 and 2.50% in early 2025.



The forecast for the remainder of 2025 is changed. We now expect two additional 25bp rate cuts during 2025 (in Q2 and Q3) and a policy rate at 2.00% at year-end 2025.

An additional year is added to the forecast horizon. We see the Riksbank on hold at 2.00% during 2026.

The previous forecast was a policy rate at 2.50% at year-end 2025.

The main reason for the revised forecast is lower global interest rates over the past months. In addition, inflation is low in Sweden and the labour market situation is deteriorating.

Our forecast for bond sales (QT) is unchanged.

The Riksbank’s next rate announcement is due on 25 September.